However, their enthusiasm is significantly lower when considering the prospect of the EU expanding to include Georgia and countries in the western Balkans.
Last month, the European Commission recommended the initiation of formal accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova.This proposal is set to be discussed by the EU’s 27 heads of government at an upcoming Brussels summit. Notably, Hungary’s Prime Minister,Viktor Orban, has consistently voiced opposition to commencing negotiations with Kyiv.
Enlargement, a long-standing but previously sidelined issue, has gained urgency within the EU since Russia initiated its war on Ukraine. In November, the commission also supported entry talks with Bosnia and Herzegovina, pending readiness, and suggested that Georgia be granted candidate country status.
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, emphasized on Monday that it would be “devastating” for Kyiv and the EU if the summit does not endorse the start of accession talks. He expressed concern about the potential consequences, highlighting the significance of this decision for the future relationship between Ukraine and the EU.
A survey conducted across six EU member states for the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) revealed significant support for the potential accession of Ukraine, and to a lesser extent, Moldova and Montenegro.
The polling also indicated widespread opposition to the eventual inclusion of Turkey, with a good reception towards the prospects of Albania, Bosnia, Georgia, Kosovo, North Macedonia, and Serbia joining the European Union.
As discussions at the upcoming summit are expected to focus on the pathways to membership for Ukraine and other countries, Piotr Buras, a senior ECFR policy fellow, noted that the debate on how to achieve this has only just begun. He called for the establishment of a “concrete timeline” for accession.
“Geopolitical rhetoric from Brussels is masking deep concerns in member states about the potential consequences of enlargement, and widespread scepticism about the EU’s ability to absorb new members,” Buras said.
According to the polling, support for Ukraine’s entry into the EU is highest in Denmark (50%) and Poland (47%). Opinion is roughly divided in Romania (32% for, 29% against), Germany (37% for, 39% against), and France (29% for, 35% against), while Austria leans towards opposition with 52%.
Despite this support, 45% of respondents expressed concerns that Ukraine’s accession could have a negative impact on the EU’s security, while 25% believed it would enhance security. Additionally, 39% believed that Kyiv’s entry would negatively affect their country’s security.
Many Europeans saw no economic benefit to Ukrainian membership. While 43% of respondents in Poland and 37% in Romania saw a positive impact on the EU’s economy, 54% in Denmark and 46% in Austria foresaw a cost.
There were also concerns about the impact of enlargement on the EU’s political power in the world. Poland and Denmark were the most optimistic, with 43% and 35% of citizens believing Ukraine’s accession would have a positive impact. However, in Austria (42%) and Germany (32%), the prevailing view was that Ukrainian membership would reduce the EU’s political power globally. France and Romania had more evenly split opinions.
The ECFR noted a clear divide between “old” and “new” EU member states on the broader principle of enlargement. Respondents in Austria (53%), Germany (50%), and France (44%) were more likely to feel that the EU should not admit new members, Guardian reported.
